ImportantFidelity: Correlation Between U.S. Treasury Yields and Bitcoin Hits All-Time High
According to the latest analysis from Fidelity Digital Assets, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to its highest level since Bitcoin's inception. Meanwhile, U.S. federal debt has exceeded $40 trillion, marking a new all-time high, with interest payments surpassing Medicare to become the second-largest expenditure item in the federal budget. Historically, Bitcoin had virtually no correlation with the 10-year real interest rate, but this relationship has shifted to positive in recent years. In 2026, the correlation between the two has exceeded 0.6, setting a new record high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has risen by nearly 30%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate has concurrently increased by over 10%. Fidelity notes that against the backdrop of elevated debt levels and intensifying fiscal pressure, Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and transparent issuance mechanism, is increasingly being recognized as a potential asset for hedging against currency devaluation and sovereign debt risks. If the current trend continues, interest payments will soon become the largest expenditure in the federal budget.
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